I Was Wrong, So....

After a week of pondering the results of the BCS bowls, and how badly I predicted three of the five of them, I have come to a kind of stunning revelation. I realize now that bowl season is only as exciting as it is because of the lack of certainty in the match ups. As in the NCAA Basketball Division I tourney, it is very hard to predict even half of the games right, and many times people will either over or under think their selections. The BCS bowls, over many of the others, can easily fall victim to the upset special or the unexpected result because of the long layoff that is associated to waiting at least four weeks, and in the case of others, sometimes longer to play in your bowl game.

This was quite apparent when Ohio State took almost seven weeks off prior to its National Championship Game, and proceeded to be shellacked by the huge underdogs, the Florida Gators. Much of the same was true with Michigan's loss to USC as the Wolverines had almost six weeks layoff while USC had only four. But the most surprising result of the BCS season was obviously the Boise State stunning victory over the heavily favored Oklahoma Sooners. In this case the Sooners had had a shorter layoff than the Broncos, and yet they still lost.

I think that that result shows exactly why the bowl system sometimes works, and mostly, this year it did. Without the bowl system, who knows if Boise State would have been able to even make it into a playoff system that was not based on the BCS? Boise finished the season ranked eighth in the final BCS standings, less than a .1 share ahead of Auburn. If the computers had not ranked them so highly they may not have even been in the top eight teams. A playoff system that would call for eight teams would have left the Broncos out, an unimaginable outcome now that we know what they really are capable of.

It’s quite obvious that eventually college football will move in the direction of a playoff system, but how they will decide the teams without as much raucous as is present with the BCS system is beyond me. If they include eight teams based on a BCS-type ranking system, the ninth and tenth teams will cry fowl, and there is no way that a 16 team playoff would be feasible, that would call for a team to play four times after the end of the regular season, more games than even the bye teams need to win in the NFL.

No matter what they decide to do, the BCS system seems to be delivering some pretty high quality games between high quality football programs that cause the entire season to be giant pressure cooker for any teams aspiring to the BCS, and for now, I think this isn't the time for a drastic change in the system that governs the college football landscape.

Bold BCS Bowl Previews, Handicaps and Predictions

Rose Bowl

Handicap: In the match up of the disappointed College Football giants, expect an exciting match up between Michigan and USC. Both teams come in with explosive offenses, which almost carried both teams to the National Championship game, give or take about four points. Michigan’s offense, led by Michael Hart and Chad Henne was able to get through the feared Ohio State defense, while USC struggled against the less than scary UCLA defense. On the other side of the ball, Michigan has an obvious advantage on the defensive side, bringing some very good cover corners and linebackers into the match up, while USC’s pass defense has been an Achilles heel all season. Also watch for the home field advantage USC will attain from the California crowd at the Rose Bowl, the very place where they lost their National Title hopes, but that time the crowd was for the most part against them, rooting for the UCLA Bruins instead. Expect a rather high scoring affair, especially from the passing game, as both defenses are more feared against the run. This will probably play a huge role in the game, so I would have to give the match up to the QB with more experience the victory, Chad Henne.

Prediction: Michigan 35 vs. USC 24

Fiesta Bowl

Handicap: In the game that should be the highest scoring of all five BCS bowls, the WAC Champs and second team from outside the BCS Conference coalition to break the system, Boise State, will face off against the Big 12 Champs, Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. Both teams entered the season knowing that their running backs would be the center of the offensive system in their game plans, but for Oklahoma, that idea was short lived. Their Heisman hopeful running back, Adrian Peterson, broke his collarbone just a few weeks into the season, and jeopardized the Sooner’s season, but they were able to fight through, only losing two games all year, one of which was on a disputed onside kick call. Boise State on the other hand, had their running back all year in Ian Johnson, and he is now a pretty strong Heisman candidate. As for the game, Oklahoma may be expecting Peterson back, so look for them to use the run big time against the less than stellar Boise State defense, one that can get lit up by some pretty lowly teams. Oklahoma’s defense is only slightly better statistically, but has been tested all year by great teams, while the Boise State defense has not. Overall, look for a pretty close and high scoring match up, with Boise State coming very close to pulling the upset, but look for Oklahoma to pull it out late.

Prediction: Oklahoma 35 Boise State 32

Orange Bowl

Handicap: Both teams enter this game on the high points of their season, Louisville riding a big winning streak to the Big East title, and Wake Forest riding a high from their unexpected ACC Championship Game victory. Wake Forest, one of the stories of the year, coming from the prediction of last in the conference to conference champs, are mostly known for their conservative offensive plan and strong defense, especially through the air. Louisville is just the opposite, basing their system on an All Big East QB, Brian Brohm, and a group of talented receivers, ready to break a big play at any moment. Louisville’s defense, on the other hand, is not all that great, we are talking about a team that gave up 21 unanswered to the previously unheralded Rutgers team, the game that propelled Rutgers into the spotlight this season. In a game located in Florida, expect the crowd to be pretty unbiased, maybe favoring Wake a little bit, but not enough to matter. In the end, expect Brohm and Louisville to be took much for the Demon Deacon defense and win big.

Prediction: Louisville 38 vs. Wake Forest 20

Sugar Bowl

Handicap: In the match up of two rather scorned teams from the BCS this year, expect a tough match up for both sides and a very interesting affair. Notre Dame, who was just able to slip into the BCS, finishing the season 11th in the BCS standings, just two places from being ineligible for BCS bowl contention, come in off probably the second lowest point of their season, after the their embarrassing blowout loss against USC in the second to last week of the season. After this embarrassment, Notre Dame may be looking for blood come January, and the team they will meet will not be easily broken down by the Notre Dame offense. The LSU Tigers have been a defensive machine all season, shutting down some of the SEC’s most vaunted defenses on the way to a big 10-2 season. Their only two losses came in away games against the other two teams from the SEC who finished the season in the BCS top twelve, Auburn and Florida. The Notre Dame defense on the other hand, has been porous all season, as showcased in their two horrific losses this season, to Michigan and to USC. LSU, which is located in Baton Rouge, also enters the game with a virtual home field advantage, play within just miles of the LSU campus, in the Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans. Although the Sugar Bowl has traditionally been a SEC favored match up because of the obvious bias the crowd has towards SEC teams, but last year, Georgia, even playing in the Georgia Dome because of the damage to the Superdome, lost to a very game West Virginia. Expect a medium scoring affair from both sides, as LSU’s offense is good enough to penetrate the Notre Dame secondary occasionally, while Brady Quinn struggles, but gets some points against the LSU defense. Expect the home field advantage to play a big part in the game as well.

Prediction: LSU 24 vs. Notre Dame 17

And Finally:

The Bowl Championship Series National Title Game

Handicap: In the biggest game of the year, and Ohio State’s third one versus two match-up, the National Championship Game this year should be a great one. Ohio State’s defense, just one year removed from losing more than half of a great starting eleven on the defensive side, is excelling beyond all predictions. Their offense as well, although not unexpected, is one of the best in the country, being led by the Heisman favorite, Troy Smith and his trio of very talented receivers, Ted Ginn Jr., Anthony Gonzalez and Brian Robiskie, plus an explosive running back in Antonio Pittman. Florida as well has had an incredible season, led by their tandem of quarterbacks, Tim Tebow and Chris Leak, plus a great SEC style defense and a talented receiver in Chris Baker, “The Touchdown Maker”. Both teams will have had more than a month layoff by the time they play this game, so expect fatigue or injuries to be no problem in this match-up. Overall expect a normal scoring game, with offenses driving the field effectively, but being stopped mid or late drive by the talented defenses on both sides. Although I would not like to, I must confess that Ohio State just has the better team, expect them to win a close one down in Arizona, a place where Ohio State won its last Championship and has been in a BCS bowl game there three out of the last four years.

Prediction: Ohio State 30 vs. Florida 24

Week 6, Not Much Better

Well, this weekend was supposed to clear things up a little bit for those who were watching the BCS standings unfold, but after all the action, it may have just got a little messier.

As you probably know, Ohio State slipped by Michigan in the #1 vs. #2 match up this Saturday, and USC outperformed Cal later that night. Those results gave Ohio State and USC both Conference Championships and automatic berths into the BCS Bowl system.

But when the rankings came out on Sunday, not much had changed. Michigan remained at #2 even after the loss to Ohio State, and USC was left out of the top three, harkening back to the 2004 season, when a season-long #2 Oklahoma lost, but remained in the National Championship picture and locked out USC.

As for some of the other teams still in contention for the spot that Michigan so slightly holds on to as we now talk, Florida continued to roll over its opponents, although this time it was a Division 1-AA team, Western Carolina. Notre Dame also beat up on its opponent, Army, and Arkansas beat Mississippi State. One of the last four unbeaten teams coming into this weekend, Rutgers, was stunned on Saturday by the Cincinnati Bearcats, and fell greatly out of title contention.

All of this sets up a big game next week for USC and Notre Dame, the #3 and #5 teams respectively, at USC. This game could very well be enough for the winner to gain some great respect from the computer polls, and maybe even the human polls, enough to gain the winner some votes from the human element and propel the winning team into the number two spot in next week’s BCS.

But even after that is completed, the match up between Arkansas and Florida in the SEC Championship Game, granting that neither team loses from no until then, could also be enough for one of those teams to have enough support from the computers or the humans to jump into that #2 spot as well.

The longer you look at this week’s BCS Standings, the more you realize that the catastrophe that the college football giants had been hoping against all season may very well be upon us, having just one team worthy of a National Title game berth, and two to five teams vying for that last spot, leaving the computers to figure out who receives that berth.

So, a week after promising more clarity, I cannot deliver, and we must wait until next week to possibly attain some more precision as to what may occur when the very last BCS standings are released.

The Mess That is the Week 5 BCS Standings

The following article was written by Asher Feldman, the new main writer for this blog. Check out his site at www.bcsknowhow.com for great insight on everything college football. Welcome to the HTG team, Asher!

The BCS has always had its flaws. Year to year, either the system that has been determining national champions since 1998 gives the nation an undisputed National Championship Game, or sends the sports nation into debate over great controversy. This year is setting up as one of the years the BCS sends the country into a state of complete shock.

As the BCS released its week five standings, the multitude of possibilities for the remaining three weeks of play in the college football season, easily sets up to be the craziest of at least the past two BCS seasons. The mess all started on Thursday, when the newly anointed #3 team, Louisville was defeated by the upstart program at Rutgers.

After defeating the West Virginia Mountaineers on the previous Thursday, Louisville had set itself up to be in the best position to take the number two spot in the BCS standings after the epic Michigan vs. Ohio State match up to be. But it all fell apart as Rutgers scored 21 unanswered points to shock the nation.

The Louisville loss only started the shake up that would result in the mess of the BCS. Over the weekend, three teams in the top 10 in the week four BCS standings fell to underdogs, completely overturning the standings. Texas lost to Kansas State, all be it without their Heisman candidate QB Colt McCoy; Auburn lost to the up and down Georgia Bulldogs in a surprise SEC upset, and Cal lost in a complete stunner to Arizona, coached by Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops’ brother, Mike Stoops.

These four former top ten teams did struggle, but other top 10s did succeed over the weekend. Notre Dame and USC both handily won their weekend match ups against traditional opponents, while the season long number one, Ohio State, and the long standing number two Michigan both cruised over much weaker in-conference opponents. Florida also won, although it had to block a field goal as time expired to save the victory.

All of this adds up to a huge mess. First of all, because Ohio State and Michigan face each other next weekend, the current number three team, USC will probably take the number two spot when the week six standings appear. After them, Florida and Notre Dame will also hope to be bumped when one of the two Big 10 teams loses. Behind those two lay Rutgers and Arkansas, two teams who need some help to get into the National Championship picture.

If one team in this weekend’s Ohio State vs. Michigan match up is blown away, that would leave just two undefeated in the top 10 in the BCS, Rutgers and the winner. The very next weekend, probable #2 USC and #4 Notre Dame will face off. If Notre Dame were to win, they would set themselves up well to be the team to play in the National Championship, the same goes for USC, who also have to defeat ranked Cal to make it to that point. The best chance for Arkansas and Rutgers to reach the Championship Game would be if Ohio State and Michigan are not close on Saturday, USC loses to Cal, but wins against Notre Dame, and then Florida, who has clinched a spot in the SEC Championship, probably against Arkansas loses to Arkansas. This would send either Arkansas or Rutgers to the National Championship Game.

Confused? I thought so. Next week it will all be a little more clear.